创造空气质量动态管理的奇迹:六省区市临时联动与常态性管控

据媒体报道,目前正在如火如荼严格执行的APEC期间六省区市联动的空气污染临时性管控措施,单在北京市就将立即为其带来30-40%左右的空气污染物排放量削减。由于矮马预报并未考虑这些临时性减排措施的效果,因此最近几天,矮马预报对北京城区的预测要明显高于实测情况,甚至有超越等级的误差,比如11月6日预报为良,但是实测为优。晴川矮马相信,这样大规模的区域联动管控,一定会将APEC会议期间任何即将形成的“雾霾”扼杀在摇篮里。

大型运动会、会议期间的临时性空气质量动态管理的特征性措施并不起源于中国。1996年的亚特兰大奥运会,不仅奇迹般地实现盈利,创下历史先河,期间施行的各项空气质量管控技术和措施,包括实时空气质量预报以及休假空城行动,也成为同类清洁空气行动的先驱和典范。随着中国经济发展在新世纪突飞猛进,越来越多地承办各类国际大型赛事和盛会,经过这些实战演练,中国各级政府机构逐渐成为临时性空气清洁管控措施执行最得力和最有运用经验的组织。这次六省市区联动管控的成效就是明证。

然而,如何将临时性的管控经验发展为常态性的管控职能并有效实施,这个才是迅速赢取民心,赢得老百姓高声欢呼的真正奇迹,它比任何世界奇迹或者宇宙奇迹都要货真价实。常态性的管控措施有别于临时性措施,但是却来源于临时性的管控经验。每一次大型盛会期间的减排管控,比如这次北京的APEC,以及夏天南京的青奥会,都是一次“天然” 检验减排效果的科学决策试验机会。事实证明,北京地区的空气污染控制,解决本地污染源排放的影响是决定性的,这既包括对机动车排放的有效控制,也包括对采暖煤改气政策以及其他脱硫脱销措施的坚决执行。周边源排放对北京的影响,主要是工业电力高架源,其效果是雪上加霜 ,并不起决定性的作用,当然联动管控是各地空气污染治理最终取胜之道。

文章分类 清洁空气行动, 环境新闻解读, 预报札记
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