南京青奥会 – 一次“天然”的空气污染减排效果科学试验

南京青奥会开幕在即。南京市政府携手周边城市采取了联动措施,从本月初开始即对辖区内各类空气污染物排放源头进行了严格管控。已执行的管控措施包括黄标车联控,道路和施工扬尘的管控,以及重点产污企业的停产和限产管制。这些暂时性管控措施的效果已经开始初步显现,南京近期的实测日报保持连日优、良。尤其是,细心的朋友会注意到矮马预报对南京的预报结果自进入8月以来,连续地存在高估现象。需要提醒的是,由于季节原因,南京及周边地区的空气质量在青奥会期间的8月份本身就要比严重时如冬季要好很多。

地方政府的污染控制管控措施的执行是源排放预测的一个重要环节,原因在于它是源排放预测里面对排放速率的变化影响最大的一个因素。青奥会期间的地方性管控措施由于政府执行力度大,一般情况下都能够得到很好地执行,这非常有利于准确预测青奥会期间由于管控措施的执行带来的源排放变化。从政策和科学研究的角度讲,南京青奥会是一次“天然”的空气污染减排效果科学实验的绝好机会。

为了充分利用好这个“实验”机会,在空气质量数值模拟及空气质量数值预报方面,可以在青奥会期间(及前后各一两周时间)有针对性地保持三套预报产品。第一套维持正常时期的源排放量,第二套把管控措施的源排放影响加进来。利用前两套预报结果的污染物浓度差别,可以很方便地评估管控措施的实际效果。而第三套,可更进一步把备用应急措施的减排效果也加进来,以备出现紧急情况时可为是否启动备用紧急措施提供临时性决策参考。

当然,为了这个“实验”更具科学性,还应该在青奥会期间及前后各一两周时间内,在南京即周边地区合理布点,进行加强的空气质量观测和污染源排放监测。用更丰富的实测数据捕捉青奥会及前后,由于源排放变化带来的空气质量变化。这些研究性质的实测数据可以测量常规空气质量监测不能覆盖的点位以及没有监测的物种,既可更全面地反映空气质量状况,同时可为更好地检验空气质量预测结果提供佐证信息,最后进一步检验后的空气质量模式及其结果则可以为决策部门提供更准确和更细致的控制政策反馈信息。

矮马预报决定在青奥会期间对南京及周边城市保持提供第一套预报产品,即预报用到的源排放将保持正常时期的排放量,要比实际经过管控的源排放量为多。因此,这一段时间矮马预报在南京地区的预报结果会较实测偏高,人工预报时应以矮马预报结果作为预测上限考虑。青奥会组委会以及南京市政府在青奥会期间期间会进行加密的人工预报和专家会商,再次提醒南京的朋友以南京市政府发布的预报结果为准,来安排出行和生活。青奥会组委会以及南京市政府也有其他协作的空气质量预报系统在提供第二套,甚至第三套预报产品,届时不同预报产品包括矮马预报产品之间的对比研究会揭示出多种有用信息,能够更好地为空气质量改善的全国性努力贡献区域经验。

另一方面,对比矮马预报在青奥会期间对南京的预测结果和以后当地的实测结果,读者可以更切身地体会到:污染管控措施的实施的确会立即带来空气质量的迅速改善。譬如,日前矮马预报根据未经管控的源排放预测的青奥会开幕当天,即8月16日,南京会有以PM2.5为首要污染物的轻度污染,但是让我们试目以待,经过当地政府污染源管控后实测的当日空气质量是否会达到至少良好的管控目标。

北京时间8月17日凌晨晴川矮马补记:

经过南京及周边城市联动管控的努力,南京及周边城市在8月16日即青奥会开幕日当日的实测AQI数值均为良好,顺利达到管控目标。而据矮马预报按未经管控的源排放量预测的结果,南京及周边城市多数本应为轻度污染。我们清楚地看到,南京及周边城市联动管控对当地空气质量好转立竿见影的效果。

青奥会开幕日AQI南京周边分布:矮马预报

青奥会开幕日AQI南京周边分布:矮马预报

青奥会开幕日AQI南京周边分布:重点城市实测日报

青奥会开幕日AQI南京周边分布:重点城市实测日报

文章分类 清洁空气行动, 环境新闻解读, 预报札记
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