什么是源排放清单?

大家知道空气质量恶化,比如灰霾的发生,主要是源于人类活动造成的污染物被排放到地球大气,并在其中进一步发生物理的转化和化学的变化,如遇不利气象条件,就表现为一种或多种空气污染物浓度升高,达到影响人类健康的水平,即空气污染了。我们可以看到在空气污染事件里,空气质量是果,空气污染物源排放是因,气象因素是条件。因此,从空气质量管理的角度,政府机构必须要做的两件不可或缺的基础工作,一是监测空气质量,即建立测量空气污染物浓度的空间网络,实时地用数据来量度空气质量,并用积累的历史数据反映空气质量的变化趋势,没有准确测量的空气质量,我们怎么能够确知我们赖以生存的空气的质量好坏?二是编制空气污染物源排放清单,即建立历年的空气污染物源排放量的数据库,没有对源排放数量上以及其时空分布上的准确把握,政府如何能够在制定控制政策时做到心中有数从而有的放矢?

下面我来具体谈一谈什么是空气污染物源排放清单,即源排放清单包括哪些内容,源排放清单是怎么来的,我国目前的源清单编制情况是怎样的,以及为什么我们至今没有一个“全国空气污染物源排放清单”。关于空气质量监测网络,我们会另外撰文进一步介绍。

当一个国家为了保护公众健康,因应其空气污染状况制定了清洁空气法案,比如我国的“大气污染防治法”,并制定了相应的国家环境保护标准,其中就会规定具体的空气污染物种类以及对应不同污染程度的空气污染物浓度分级。就我国目前制定的法规和标准来看,其规定的常规空气污染物包括二氧化硫(SO2),二氧化氮(NO2),一氧化碳(CO),臭氧(O3),可吸入颗粒物(PM10)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)六种。除了常规污染物外,还定义了有毒有害空气污染物,比如铅和汞,另外可挥发性有机物(VOC)里也有多种是已明确的有毒有害空气污染物,像我们常听说的二恶英就是,这些有毒有害空气污染物往往是致癌物。针对这些环境空气中的常规和有毒有害空气污染物,除了要安排在监测站点位对它们进行日常监控外,还要对这些污染物的来源编制相应的空气污染物源排放清单,才能对这些污染物的源头有充分认识,从而对它们的危害进行有效控制和防范。大多数国家编制的空气污染物源排放清单实际上是相对独立的两个清单,一个是常规空气污染物源排放清单,另一个是有毒有害空气污染物源排放清单。这两者的差别主要是清单中所包括的具体的源排放污染物的种类不一样,前者主要包括能够影响环境空气中常规污染物浓度的七种源排放污染物(即一次污染物):氮氧化物(NOx),可挥发性有机物(VOC),二氧化硫(SO2),一氧化碳(CO),氨气(NH3),细颗粒物(PM2.5)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10),而后者则包括众多的已经探明的空气中的有毒有害物质,比如多环芳烃及其衍生物(苯并芘等)和二恶英类,以及铅和汞等重金属污染物。考虑到两种源清单除了包括的物种不一样外,其他要素都基本相同,因此下面我们仅以常规空气污染物源排放清单为对象来详细介绍源排放清单本身。值得注意的是,我国在编制有毒有害空气污染物源排放清单方面的努力比常规空气污染物清单更为落后。

一份完整的常规空气污染物源排放清单首先是根据既定年份来编制的,即如果目标年是2014年,那么所有源排放估算必须同时采用2014年的数据。同时这个清单还必须符合下述三个特征,首先是必须包括上面提到的7种排放物种,其次要包括所有源排放种类,最后还要覆盖全部行政区划和地理范围,否则,缺失任何一个特征都不能称为完整意义上的常规空气污染物源排放清单,也都会影响到后续的研究和决策工作的需要。我国的常规空气污染物源排放清单的编制始于上世纪九十年代的零星研究工作,由于研究目的的不同,这些源排放清单多数没有能够包括所有7种排放物种。比如早期我们只有二氧化硫的排放量,原因是那时酸沉降的工作得到国家层面的大力支持,全国重点源调查的内容包括了二氧化硫。以后氮氧化物的排放大多是根据二氧化硫的排放量按比例推算出来的,而可挥发性有机物就无“数”可查了。直至最近几年这个情况才得以逐步改善,笔者欣喜地看到我国陆续有氨的排放估算,以及细颗粒物的排放估算出现在学术文章和研究报告中。但是直到目前,我们最接近完整的源排放清单也还是没有能够符合后面两个特征,即没有包括所有源排放种类,也没有能够以同样详尽的程度涵盖全部地理范围。

一份完整的源排放清单要穷尽所有源排放种类。这既包括所有的人类排放活动(称人为源),也包括天然排放来源(称天然源)。人们一般用排放活动的不同特征来对源进行分类。为此,各国都制定了详尽的源分类代码用于编制清单的需要。比如美国采用了四级代码体系,由此生成的源分类代码数目高达1万多条。目前,我国还没有国家标准的源分类代码。源分类代码或者源分类本身,主要是标准化源排放清单,将相同特质的源归于同类,便于统计和研究,也便于普查和上报。在最高层级上,源分类是人为源的点源,固定非点源(面源)和流动源以及天然源这几大类。天然源再细分的话主要是火山喷发火山灰和二氧化硫,土壤排放一氧化氮,植被排放可挥发性有机物,海洋排放海盐,风沙起尘以及森林野火等。而人为源则主要按能源使用类别进一步细分或按其他人类活动细分。由于大多数人为源排放都与能源使用相关,因此源分类的大多数都按能源种类以及使用方式细分。比如,先按能源种类即煤,汽油,柴油,液化气,天然气,柴薪等分类,再按燃烧方式分类,比如电厂,锅炉,汽车,轮船,铁路机车,施工机械,搬运机械,炉灶,游艇,除草机等,最后按型号大小或其他特征更进一步细分,比如道路移动源可进一步细分为车辆的不同类型和行驶道路的不同等级。其他非能源活动则包括各种工业生产工艺过程比如钢铁冶炼,水泥生产,化工过程,家具制造,电子产品,溶剂使用,油品储运,工地扬尘,以及工业品的民用过程比如吸烟,化妆品,干洗等等,还有垃圾焚烧,污水处理,秸秆焚烧,牲畜饲养,农田施肥等等。按以上详尽的源分类估算每一行政区划范围内的每一类源的每个物种的源排放年总量以及臭氧季节的日均排放量,就构成了源清单的主要内容。其中点源还要进一步给出排放点的经纬度地理坐标,比如工厂烟囱的地理位置,加油站的地理位置,以及烟囱的物理信息和排气信息等。排放量较小的工业点源可以归入面源。而面源和流动源则要按尽可能细的行政区划来统计,比如至少以县为单位。其原则是后续研究比如空气质量模式应用时,有对应的地理信息作依据可在空间上厘清每个源的具体范围。

那么这样一份完整的源清单是怎么编制得来的呢?编制的困难又在哪里呢?要得到如前所述的按详尽源分类和行政区划统计的源清单,不是一件简单的事情,而是一个系统工程。首先,需要解释的是,某行政区划内某一源分类的某种污染物的排放量是如何估算来的?简单地说是根据该行政区划内这一源分类对应的活动数据乘以排放因子算得的,比如活动数据是燃煤量,排放因子是单位燃煤量排放污染物的数量,或者活动数据是行驶里程数,而排放因子是单位里程污染物排放量。因此,估算源排放的关键是获取活动数据以及对应的排放因子。大家注意到,其实活动数据就是各地各部门各行业的能源,经济,交通和社会数据,那么获得这些详细的活动数据难不难呢?在发达国家里,这些详尽数据是各级政府必须统计也必须公开和共享的数据。唯一有问题的是,如果要详细到每个点源,即大型的工业企业,会涉及到其商业机密,就比较困难了。至今欧洲国家以及加拿大都没有能够彻底解决这个数据共享的问题。只有美国通过了立法,要求每一个工业企业必须公开详细的源排放数据,否则违法。在我国,很多的能源,交通和经济数据可以通过公开的年鉴检索得到,但是各地出版物的统计口径不尽相同,数据的详尽程度往往得不到满足,而满足详尽条件的数据则从来不是共享的和公开的。另一方面,排放因子的获取则需要在国家层面上建立所有源分类的排放因子库,这在各国主要是通过资助研究部门通过长期的测量和研究,积累数据从而得到的。比如美国的AP-42空气污染物源排放因子库。另外,国家层面上也需要制定相应的规范和标准指导地方政府和企事业单位如何应用这些排放因子库结合活动数据进行合理的源排放估算。比如我国最近颁布的可挥发性有机物源排放编制指南。因此编制源清单的通常做法是在国家层面通过立法或条例要求工业企业按国家规范填报源排放数据,比如我国2010年进行的针对2007年的污染源普查工作,然后地方政府在汇总了本地企业数据以后,利用详尽的能源,经济,交通和社会数据将余下的源分类也分别估算出来,再上报汇总到高一级政府,最后形成全国源排放清单。另外,源排放清单的编制是一个长期的不间断过程,比如美国每三年就编制一个全国性的源排放清单(NEI),最近的2011和2014都是其源清单编制目标年。我们说源排放清单的编制是一个系统工程,不仅仅是指编制过程需要政府出面立法,立规,建立完整的数据库,还包括初步的清单编制出来以后,还有一个质量控制和修订的机制。而这个质量控制机制里最显著的特征是源排放清单数据公开和共享。目前我国还没有这个机制。发达国家主要依靠自检以及更重要的数据公开和共享以及鼓励研究的方式,对源清单进行质量控制。其中一个重要的环节是鼓励大量应用源排放清单进行的空气质量模式研究,将模拟的污染物浓度与实测值进行对比从而间接验证源排放清单的准确程度。

我国的常规空气污染物源排放清单的编制不尽理想,由地方政府主导的源排放编制至今仍停留在条块分割,各自为政,互不分享的状态。在国家层面则至今没有一个公开的环保部主导的权威的全国排放清单。早在上世纪90年代初,就有日本学者利用我国省级的能源排放数据估算了二氧化硫和氮氧化物源排放清单。以后陆续又有国内和国际的学者根据公开数据估算了包括更多污染物种以及针对其他年份的源排放清单,其中在各项研究中使用最为广泛的是美国阿贡实验室两次受NASA资助开发的2000年的TARCEA-P和2006年INTEX-B包括中国在内的东亚源清单。最近清华大学又在INTEX-B的基础上开发了一个2010年的不包括台湾的全国性源清单。但是所有这些学术界的努力结果,都不完全严格符合完整的源排放清单必须的特质。随着最近几年空气质量在我国人口稠密地区迅速恶化,全国各大城市和经济发达省份都陆续主导开发了或正在开发本地的源排放清单。但是由于数据的不公开、不共享,这些清单的编制水平如何,准确程度怎样,都不得而知。同时,由于数据封锁,也为研究空气污染的区域传输和异地影响人为地设置了重重障碍。可想而知,为什么我们至今没有一个“全国空气污染物源排放清单”?

矮马预报的亚欧源清单包括中国的全国源清单都是在开发者多年从事源排放估算和预测的历年积累以及他人工作的基础之上,丰富,完善并提高得来的。然而,由于获取的各项数据在详尽程度上存在地区差异,造成了源清单准确程度的地区差异,而这正是矮马预报准确性存在地区差异的主要原因之一。同时,源清单在空气质量数值模式应用过程中的空间分配,化学分裂以及季节和时间分配上的不确定性会也会造成进一步的源排放输入误差从而影响矮马预报在不同城市地区的预报准确性。

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