空气质量预报是怎么做出来的?

要定量判断是否有PM2.5污染,需要用精密的科学仪器来进行日常监测。目前,全国170多个重点城市已经实现了日常监测PM2.5(以及其它5种空气污染物)的小时浓度并实时公布的举措,为公众准确判断PM2.5污染和空气质量好坏直接提供了科学依据。

而对于未来几天的PM2.5污染走势的判断,则需要依赖于当地的空气质量预报。空气质量预报一般采用统计预报模式或者数值预报模式。数值预报模式更为复杂,能够预报多天和格点化的空气质量。矮马预报就是一种数值预报。

一般的数值预报系统集成中尺度气象模式预报气象场,源排放模式处理源清单并准备空气质量模式所需源排放场, 以及区域空气质量模式预报污染物的化学与传输以及空气质量场,在大型计算机上从初始条件出发加上各种输入条件通过大规模计算求解污染物质量守恒方程组,从而给出未来几天时、空分布的空气质量状况。除预报常规的二氧化硫(SO2),二氧化氮(NO2),一氧化碳(CO)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10),以及臭氧(O3)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)外,还能基于预报的颗粒物各组分浓度预报能见度。

统计预报模式则是依赖利用历史数据建立的空气污染物浓度和其它变量例如气象参数之间的统计关系,再根据预测的未来气象参数,从而估算出未来的空气污染物浓度。不同地点的统计关系各异,因此统计预报模式只能对一城一地做出预报,不同地点需要建立不同的预报模式。

由于不论数值预报或者统计预报在目前的技术和信息条件限制情况下,往往都不能精准地预测未来污染状况,因此在空气质量预报的具体实践中,各国、各地实际进行的都是在模式预报结果的基础上进行人工修订的专家预报。我们称这些专家为空气质量预报员。

也就是说空气质量预报的一个完整流程应该是这样的:早上起来,空气质量预报员开始察看昨天以及今天的实时空气污染物监测的数值情况,然后根据汇总的监测数据分析过去几天到当前的空气污染走势;察看实时监测的污染物排放状况,比如地面或者卫星对秸秆焚烧的监测,对城市交通状况的监测(是否有异常拥堵的情况发生);察看实时的气象卫星云图和气象参数的观测情况;察看空气质量数值预报或者统计预报的未来预报结果,尤其关注预报的天气形势是否与最新的观测数据表明的未来趋势相符;根据经验判断模式预报结果的可靠性;根据经验和所有搜集到的最新信息,结合模式结果以及自己的修订给出独立的预报结果;最后与其他空气质量预报员进行会商;会商结果就是最终出炉的对明天或者更远未来的空气质量预报。

在我国,北京在奥运会,上海在世博会,广州在亚运会,深圳在大运会期间都尝试了空气质量预报服务,为运动员和公众提供空气质量日常预警。目前,发达国家在臭氧和PM2.5的预报上基本能做到日常服务,我国在这方面还有待进一步提高。矮马预报的出世就是为了在这个方面进行有益的探索,让我们携手努力。

 

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